Friday, September 30, 2011
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CAD
STORY LINK Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CAD
Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CAD
POUND STERLING
This morning?s PMI survey showed that the UK?s manufacturing output continued to contract last month as demand for British exports in foreign markets dropped off. With the latest Halifax house price survey showing an unexpected dip in UK property prices, most analysts would have expected the Pound to come under selling pressure. However, the Pound has shown some resilience to hold its own against the other majors. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK ? NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.
US DOLLAR ? The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.6221
This afternoon?s US employment sector data came out broadly as per expectations, showing that conditions in the American market remain soft. If tomorrow?s Non-Farm Payrolls figure confirms that job generation in the world?s leading economy remains slow, then institutional investors may turn against the Greenback, halting its recent forward move in the currency markets. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK ? NEUTRAL.
EURO ? The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1351
The Euro has come under some selling pressure in the currency market today following this morning?s release of finalised German GDP figures for the three months to June. The numbers showed that German exports remained strong during this period, however other components of the numbers hinted at weakness in Germany?s domestic economy ? bad news for the Eurozone as a whole and for its single currency. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK ? NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR ? The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5147
Chinese manufacturing figures, released during last night?s Asian session, came out worse than had been anticipated, which is never good news for Australian exporters and European equities markets have lost ground so far today, hinting a softening in appetite for risk. The high-yielding Australian Dollar has not suffered any significant downside as of yet, however further disappointing data releases, or stock market losses, could cause the Aussie to come under selling pressure. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK ? NEUTRAL.
CANADIAN DOLLAR? The Pound Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is 1.5843
The Canadian Dollar has enjoyed a strong start to today?s session, causing the GBP CAD rate to drop by almost a cent from its overnight high at one point. The move has partly been driven by a move forward in the price of crude oil over the past few sessions and by yesterday?s better-than-anticipated US Factory Orders data, hinting at a potential for strong future demand for Canadian commodities. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK ? NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.
For other live currency exchange rates and a currency converter see the currency news website.
TAGS: American Dollar Forecasts Australian Dollar Forecasts Canadian Dollar Forecasts Currency Predictions Euro Forecasts Pound Australian Dollar Forecasts Pound Canadian Dollar Forecasts Pound Dollar Forecasts Pound Euro Forecasts Pound Sterling Forecasts
Source: http://www.currencynews.co.uk/forecast/20110901-713_forex-predictions-gbp-usd-eur-aud-cad.html
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What I See in FX Market
$EURUSD
WHAT ProAct Traders SEE: We are currently sitting @ 1.4196 just above the day chart trend wall. We are in a nice downtrend but could bounce on the day chart trend line. There is strong support in the 1.4156 area ( S5). We are expecting a bounce there to the .382 Fibo ( 1.4310) but cannot rule out continuation of the downtrend through the day chart trend line. If we get the break of the day chart trendline look for the 1.4100 initial target and then the 1.270 Fib extension @ 1.4053. The average daily trading range for the cross currently is 132 pips.
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$USDJPY
WHAT ProAct Traders SEE: We are currently @ 76.82. The cross is sitting just above the a strong countertrend line and has formed a wedge so we are looking for a move back to the double bottom (intervention territory) @76.00. The average daily trading range for the cross currently is 59 pips.
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$GBPUSD
WHAT ProAct Traders SEE: We are currently @ 1.6225. The cross bounced on the bottom and currently just above the day chart trend line and below the .382 fibo. A break of the .382 Fibo up look for Targets north: look for the ..618 Fibo @ 1.6318 then the R4 @ 1.6361. The average daily trading range for the cross currently is 129pips.
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$AUDUSD ? A great smooth currency for Newbie?s!
WHAT ProAct Traders SEE: We are currently @ 1.0655. The cross has started a pullback to the Day chart trend line. We are expecting a correction to the .618 Fibo ( 1.0554) but could pull up at the .500 @ 1.0595. A break to the downside would mean a deeper correction an would look for the 1.0430 if that happened. The targets up are double top @ 1.0766, the 1.270 Fibo @ 1.0860. The average daily trading range for the cross currently is 106 pips.
Source: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/what-i-see-in-fx-market/2011-09-03.html
Forex Weekly Outlook ?September 5-9
This week?s most important events are the rate decisions in Australia, Japan, Canada, the UK and in the �Euro-Zone and employment data in Australia, �and Canada. Here is an outlook on all the major events awaiting us this week.
Last week the overall picture in the US has worsened after a flat reading of non-farm payrolls indicating no new Jobs were created in August. This is the weakest figure in almost a year, much lower than the 74,000 jobs expected by analysts. However, this reading was affected by the strike at Verizon artificially decreasing 45,000 jobs from the payrolls. Another positive sign is ADP report published two days ago, has shown a gain of 91K.
Let?s Start
- Australian rate decision:�Tuesday, 4:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at 4.75% despite growing concerns over the growing inflation and global uncertainties. No changes are expected.
- US�ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI:�Tuesday, 14:00. ISM Non-manufacturing index decreased to52.7 in July after53.3 in the previous month. Indicating further growth but at a slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. A small drop to 51.5 is expected.
- Australian GDP:�Wednesday, 1:30.Australia?s economy shrank in the first quarter by 1.2% following floods which affected exports. Exports plunged 8.7% subtracting 2.1 percentage points from GDP growth. Nevertheless the economy is expected to rebound in the second quarter. An expansion of 0.1% is predicted.
- Japan�rate decision:�Wednesday. The�Bank of Japan�held its�overnight call rate at a range of 0 to 0.1% by a unanimous vote. �However the BOJ has decided to increase the asset purchase program by 10 trillion to 50 trillion yen. � Further monetary easing is essential for a successful recovery according to BOJ members. The same rate is forecasted.
- Canadian Rate decision;�Wednesday, 13:00. The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate at 1.0%. Canada?s economic expansion is continuing in line with predictions with strong household spending but weaker experts due to reduced US demand. No changes are predicted.
- Australian employment data:�Wednesday, 1:30.�Australian economy did not add any jobs in July but contracted 100 positions. This reading was contrary to the 10,000 additional positions predicted by analysts. Full time employment dropped by 22,200 while part-time employment increased by 22,100. The unemployment rate climbed to 5.1% from 4.9% in the previous month. This rise in unemployment indicated that the boom from the global recovery has subsided. 10,400 new jobs are expected and Unemployment is predicted to remain 5.1%.
- UK�rate decision:�Thursday, 11:00. All MPC members voted to maintain interest rates at 0.5% which further distances the possibility of future rate hikes. Moreover a future quantitative easing plan was discussed as a possible option. Decreasing global demand and financial crisis in world markets will reduce inflation pressures. No change is foreseen.
- Euro-Zone rate decision:�Thursday, 11:45. European Central Bank has decided to keep interest rate at 1.50% and buy more Italian and Spanish sovereign bonds in order to fight the euro-zone debt crisis. The same rate is expected to be maintained.
- US Trade Balance:�Thursday, 12:30.�TheU.S. trade deficit widened to $53.1 billion in June from $50.8 billion in the previous month, the largest deficit in almost three years. This unexpected increase in deficit was contrary to predictions of a possible improvement to $48.2 billion. Exports as well as imports have declined. Deficit is expected to decrease to $49.7 billion.
- US Unemployment Claims:�Thursday, 12:30. New applications for unemployment dropped by 12,000 last week to 409,000. The average of new claims over the past four weeks increased to 410,250 indicating that the US job market is still weak.A further drop to 408,000 is predicted.
- Canadian employment data:�Friday, 11:00. Canada?s unemployment rate dropped to 7.2% percent in July, its lowest since December 2008, from in June, with improvement in job creation rising by 7,100 after 28,400 surge in the previous month. This is good news for the Canadian job market. An increase of 31,400 jobs is expected with an increase on Unemployment rate reaching 7.3%.
That?s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.
Source: http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-weekly-outlook/2011-09-03.html
Spain is closer to controls on budget
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/forexlive-rss/~3/U5xteWWWwxg/
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Saturday, September 3, 2011
Individuals Who Are Not Authorized to Work in the United States Were Paid $4.2 Billion in Refundable IRS Credits
According to a Treasury Inspector General audit, Individuals Who Are Not Authorized to Work in the United States Were Paid $4.2 Billion in Refundable Credits
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Made Fraud EasierRedaction Legend:
1. Tax Return/Return Information
2(f). Risk circumvention of agency Regulations or StatutesIMPACT ON TAXPAYERS
Many individuals who are not authorized to work in the United States, and thus not eligible to obtain a Social Security Number (SSN) for employment, earn income in the United States. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) provides such individuals with an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN) to facilitate their filing of tax returns. Although the law prohibits aliens residing without authorization in the United States from receiving most Federal public benefits, an increasing number of these individuals are filing tax returns claiming the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC), a refundable tax credit intended for working families. The payment of Federal funds through this tax benefit appears to provide an additional incentive for aliens to enter, reside, and work in the United States without authorization, which contradicts Federal law and policy to remove such incentives.
WHAT TIGTA FOUND
Claims for the ACTC by ITIN filers have increased from $924 million in Processing Year 2005 (the calendar year in which the tax return was processed) to $4.2 billion in Processing Year 2010. Clarification to the law is needed to address whether or not refundable tax credits such as the ACTC may be paid to those who are not authorized to work in the United States. *********************2(f)*********************************** Also, employees in the Accounts Management Taxpayer Assurance Program are not taking steps to notify taxpayers when it is obvious their SSNs and names have been compromised.
TIGTA also found that a feature on tax preparation software programs which automatically takes the taxpayer identification number and enters it as the identifying number for the taxpayer?s Wage and Tax Statements ******************2(f)*************************************.
WHAT TIGTA RECOMMENDED
TIGTA recommended that the IRS work with the Department of the Treasury to seek clarification on whether or not refundable tax credits may be paid to individuals who are not authorized to work in the United States. TIGTA also recommended the IRS require individuals filing with ITINs and claiming the ACTC to provide specific verifiable documentation to support that their dependents meet the qualifications for the credit, including residency, and that questionable Child Tax Credit (CTC) and ACTC claims on ITIN returns **********2(f)*******************************. The IRS should also notify taxpayers when their SSNs are compromised and ensure that software packages do not auto-populate an ITIN onto Wage and Tax Statements.
IRS management agreed to discuss with the Department of the Treasury the issue of ITIN filers? ACTC eligibility. The IRS did not agree to require additional documentation to support CTC and ACTC claims on ITIN returns ********************2(f)*********************************** The IRS is exploring options to alert taxpayers whose SSNs have been compromised and plans to address software that auto-populates an ITIN onto Wage and Tax Statements and take sanctions for noncompliance.
The Washington Post commented on the fraud in Undocumented workers got billions from IRS in tax credits, audit finds
Fraud and government programs go hand-in-hand.Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, On Friday announced plans to examine the refunds.
?The disconcerting findings in this report demand immediate attention and action from Congress and the Obama Administration,? Hatch said in a statement.. ?With our debt standing at over $14.5 trillion and counting, it?s outrageous that the IRS is handing out refundable tax credits...to those who aren?t even eligible to work in this country.?
Wage earners who do not have Social Security numbers and are not authorized to work in the United States can use what the IRS calls individual taxpayer identification numbers. Often these result in fraudulent claims on tax returns, auditors found.
Their data showed that 72 percent of returns filed with taxpayer identification numbers claimed the child tax credit.
Changes to tax law are partly to blame for the explosion in refunds for additional child tax credits in recent years, auditors found. Before 2001, filers needed to have three or more children to qualify ? and to owe more Social Security taxes than earned income credits.
But those requirements have been eliminated and the allowable refund for each child doubled. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 also made the refund easier to get, auditors found.
In my opinion we should kill this ridiculous program entirely. The next best alternative is to not grant any credits to anyone who does not have a social security number and is not a US citizen.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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