Finance Minister Noda Wins Japanese Elections

Market Brief

Financial markets are stable to slightly higher at the start of this week as Asian investors finally got their chance to express a reaction to Bernanke?s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, and hurricane Irene was downgraded to a tropical storm. Both Bernanke and Irene were anticipated to have major impacts (one on the US economy as a whole, the other more focused on the Eastern seaboard), but neither provided consequences as dramatic as some had forecast. The Nikkei today is currently trading +0.6%, with the Hang Seng +1.2%; but the Shanghai Composite is the lone underperformer trading at -1.3%.

It was announced late in the Asian session that Japanese Finance Minister Noda has won the DPJ leadership election and therefore will become Japan?s sixth Prime Minister in just 5 years. It is unclear at this stage who will replace him at the MoF, but it is unlikely that whoever it is will be any more comfortable with the strength of the Japanese currency. USDJPY has been largely unaffected by the news, as the pair is content to trade around 76.60 levels as it did for most of last week.

Looking ahead, it is a UK public holiday today so we expect lower liquidity in the European session ? at least until US markets start to open later in the day. There will be a glut of German regional CPI readings released throughout the morning; and the composite German figure is expected to drop to -0.1% MoM, +2.3% YoY (compared to July?s reading of +0.4%, +2.4%). This afternoon the US will see the release of July?s PCE data, personal income/spending and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index.

8'851.35	+ 0.61
19'823.63	+ 1.23
2'573.91	- 1.47
5'129.92	- 0.02
5'537.48	- 0.84
5'323.12	+ 0.47
1'186.20	+ 1.00

1'812.15	- 0.86
41.01	- 0.85
35.59	- 10.49
85.64	+ 0.32
73.57	- 0.19

-0.1 (2.3)	0.4 (2.4)	EUR/---
0.3	0.1	USD/12:30
0.5	-0.2	USD/12:30
2.7	2.6	USD/12:30
-0.9(13.6)	2.4 (17.3)	USD/14:00
-8.5	-2.0	USD/14:30

Currency Tech

EURUSD
R 2: 1.4655
R 1: 1.4575
CURRENT: 1.4540
S 1: 1.4465
S 2: 1.4330

GBPUSD
R 2: 1.6535
R 1: 1.6400
CURRENT: 1.6380
S 1: 1.6325
S 2: 1.6210

USDJPY
R 2: 77.85
R 1: 76.80
CUREENT: 76.70
S 1: 76.50
S 2: 75.95

AUDUSD
R 2: 1.0785
R 1: 1.0635
CURRENT: 1.0610
S 1: 1.0560
S 2: 1.0420

• S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

Source: http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/market-session-snapshot/2011-08-29.html

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