The markets grew even more risk averse on Tuesday amid ongoing structural problems in the Eurozone and the weak US economic recovery. Consequently, the franc surged, while the other major foreign currencies fell. The double top in the US indexes continues to reign, so they fell further, while gold rose and oil dropped.�
The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for the major foreign currencies is divergent. The LGR model is long all yen, franc and Australian dollar, and short euro, pound and Canadian dollar.
Overnight:
- US: Personal incomes rose 0.1 percent in June, slower than revised 0.2 percent increase in May. Personal consumer expenditures decreased 0.2 percent and the price index for personal consumer expenditures increased 0.2 percent in June.
Today?s economic calendar:
- Australia: AiG Performance of Service Index for July���
- Australia: Trade balance for June���
- Australia: Retail sales for June���
- Eurozone: PMI composite for July���
- UK: PMI services for July�
� �
EUR - September
Luca Model: Short since August 1 (reversing long since July 19)
�
The September euro closed further down, sinking to a near two-week low on Tuesday, amid concern about the Eurozone and the US. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and my model went short.
Tuesday low is 1.4139. Further support is at 1.4095 and 1.3990.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.4270. Distant resistance is at 1.4400.
INDICATORS����
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish���
OUTLOOK�
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish�
�
JPY ? September��
Luca Model: Long since July 8
The overbought September Japanese yen firmed in an inside range on Tuesday after falling from a new high for the uptrend on Monday. The risk of a BoJ intervention to temporarily reduce the value of the yen is more likely to occur than last week. The short-term outlook is sideways with downside risk. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 129.65. The next cap is 130.43. Monday?s high is 131.13. Distant resistance is at 131.95.
Immediate support is at 128.55. Monday?s low is 128.17. The 21-day moving average follows at a distant 127.30.�
INDICATORS���
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish�����
OUTLOOK�
NEAR-TERM: Sideways with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish�
�
GBP - September��
Luca Model: Short since August 1 (reversing long since July 13)
The September pound slipped on Tuesday after reversing aggressively from a two-month high on Monday. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short.
The 21-day moving average supports at 1.6221. The next floor is 1.6145.�
Immediate resistance is at 1.6315. The next caps are 1.6375, 1.6468 and 1.6510.�
INDICATORS
��
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF ? September
Luca Model: Long since July 21
The overbought September Swiss franc soared to a record high on Tuesday. The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long. The franc is trading in the fifth subwave of the fifth Elliott wave.
Initial resistance is at 1.3095. Further resistance is at 1.3155.
Immediate support is at 1.2945. The next floor is 1.2735.�
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways (overbought)
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish (overbought)
�
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
CAD ? September
Luca Model: Short since July 29
The overbought September Canadian fell for a fifth day on Tuesday and reached an over two-week low. It had peaked last Tuesday at the highest level since November 2007. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is barely bullish but my model is short. The loonie is trading in the third Elliott wave.
Initial support is at 1.0386. Further support is at 1.0350.
The 21-day moving average supports at 1.0441. Further resistance is at 1.0525.
INDICATORS���
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bullish�
�
OUTLOOK�
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish��
LONG-TERM: Bullish��
AUD ? September��
Luca Model: Long since July 20
�
The overbought September Australian dollar collapsed on Tuesday. It had marked a new high for the uptrend last Wednesday. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is still long. The Aussie is trading in the fifth subwave of the fifth Elliott wave.
The 21-day moving average supports at 1.0732. The next floor is 1.0665.�
Immediate resistance is at 1.0810. Tuesday?s high is 1.0940.� Wednesday and Thursday?s peak is 1.1005.
INDICATORS�����
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish��
Ichimoku: Bullish��
OUTLOOK�
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Source: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/premarket-analysis/2011-08-02.v02.html
No comments:
Post a Comment