Monday, August 1, 2011

Update: UK Jul CIPS Manufacturing Shows Shock Contraction

?Adds Detail, Analysts Reaction To Version Transmitted At 0840 GMT
?UK July CIPS Manufacturing PMI 49.1 Vs 51.4 In June ? Markit/Reuters
?UK July CIPS Manufacturing Lowest Since May 2009
?UK July CIPS Manufacturing PMI Below Median Forecast Of 50.8

LONDON (MNI) ? The UK manufacturing sector experienced a shock
contraction in July, according to the Markit/Chartered Institute of
Purchasing and Supply survey.

The headline July CIPS PMI manufacturing index, published by
Reuters, slipped to 49.1 from 51.4 in June, below analysts? median
forecast for a 50.8 outturn. The data show manufacturing making a very
weak start to the third quarter.

The headline reading was the lowest since June 2009, and the move
below 50 marks a return to contractionary territory.

The ouput index fell to its lowest level since May 2009, as did the
new orders index.

The survey showed inflationary pressures easing with input prices
falling to their lowest level since December 2009.

The CIPS manufacturing index is the first widely-followed
manufacturing indicator of the third quarter. The Bank of England, and
other forecasters, have predicted a sharp rebound in Q3 after special
factors, including the Royal Wedding and the supply chain disruptions
from the Japanese Tsunami, hit Q2 output.

The BOE?s implied forecast in its May Inflation Report was for 1%
quarterly growth in Q3.

With manufacturing appearing to shrink at the start of Q3, analysts
sounded the alarm bells.

?While output in the second quarter was adversely affected by
?temporary factors?, it is hard to see how they could still be
depressing output now ? indeed, they should be boosting it if any
delayed work is now being caught up,? Samuel Tombs at Capital Economics
noted.

Tombs said the evidence was growing that the ?economic recovery has
made a very weak start to the third quarter.?

?There are few signs of a rebound from the effects of the Japanese
shut down, or the benefits of devaluation,? Ian Kernohan, economist at
Royal London Asset Management noted.

?London newsroom 0044 207 862 7491; email:drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$BDS$,MT$$$$,MABDS$]

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